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Sunday, August 31, 2014

The 7th MAS Bailout in 13 Years

Khazanah has worked out a "12 Point Plan" to bailout MAS. Someone said this "12 points", "Newco" etc are typical Mckinsey talk. The con-sultans are making money again.  Khazanah does not have the smarts to sort out this type of mismanagement.  Their mismanagement created this mess in the first place. 

(By the way dont ask how Medini is doing. The Chinese developers - from China - are giving away FREE RM1.0 million apartments in south Johor fo every purchase of an apartment in Shanghai !! Thats how bad the property situation is in Johor.)

I was reading BK Sidhu’s story about MAS in The Star yesterday (Sat 30/8/14).  BK is a wonderful writer. She can make things look so good and then suddenly she gives a duku. 

First lets start with a joke. The PM says injecting RM6.0 billion into a Newco to save our national airline operations (aka MAS) from going under is NOT a bailout.  The PM says its an investment.   And the PM feels that he has outsmarted everyone. 

The real joke is when the PM says that every Ringgit from the RM6.0 billion "investment" in Newco will be recovered. This is where BK delivers a duku – “Since taking over MAS in 2001…Khazanah has injected more than RM7.0 billion into MAS, which Azman (Mokhtar) does not think would be recoverable.”

If the super dunggus could not recover RM7.0 billion in 13 years, how on earth are the same super dunggus going to recover RM6bil in what THREE years?  Or is it 20 years now? 

And folks, this bailout is NOT RM6.0bil ok. MAS has debts totalling RM11.7bil. Who is going to tanggung those RM11.7bil debts?  The short answer is YOU,  Mr and Mrs Rakyat Malaysia Suckers. For example read this : 'the plan calls for conversion of some debt into equity. Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (KWAP) agreed to swap its existing RM750mil sukuk with ordinary equity.'  

There you are folks – already a RM750mil hutang has been absorbed by you and you, Mr & Mrs Rakyat Malaysia, just like that. So now the bailout will be RM6.0bil + RM750mil = RM6.75bil.

Ok a few more questions. MAS does not even own their building anymore. They do not own any airplanes. All their airplanes are owned by Penerbangan Malaysia Bhd (from that WAU bailout). So how in Allah's name did they stack up RM11.7bil in debt? Hutang apa ini RM11.7bil?

I believe there will be more ‘absorption’ of this RM11.7 billion debt. Why? Because if you transfer all this RM11.7bil debt to that Newco which they are planning, it will kill Newco even before a single flight takes off.

People in the know say that MAS’ local bankers (err CIMB and Maybank??) will also write off some of their portion of that  RM11.7bil debt.  Bankers call it a ‘haircut’. Since CIMB and Maybank are GLCs, it actually means you and you again - Mr & Mrs Rakyat Malaysia Suckers.  The Chairman of CIMB is the PM's brother. Do you think he is going to do anything to embarrass his brother the PM? Not likely. If you feel embarrassed so what? Who cares?

The question is how much more of MAS RM11.7bil debt will be 'turned into equity', 'haircutted' by the GLC banks etc?  Khazanah is not divulging this part of the story.

And here is another nightmare.  Folks say that the new MAS Act will also authorise the Minister of Finance Inc to issue gomen bonds to raise funds to retire some of that RM11.7bil MAS debt.  To be repaid  from tax collections. Thats you and you again Mr and Mrs Rakyat Malaysia.  

So the total bailout is NOT RM6.0bil. It is going to be much, much more than RM6.0bil.  Err...PM's Advisors....ente semua boleh faham ke semua isu ni? Ini belum lagi high finance tau. Ini baru arithmetic Darjah Lima.

This 7th bailout of MAS will wipe out ALL the projected GST collections of RM5bil - RM6bil ??  So Mr and Mrs Rakyat Malaysia, you will be paying GST taxes to pay for the super dunggus incompetence at Khazanah Nasional.

Which is why I feel MAS will end up selling their family silver namely MAS Kargo, MAS Engineering, the CEO's car and so on. They have to sell assets to reduce debt. And if the assets are sold to cronies or to Khazanah itself, they will engage in the "Buy High Sell Low" business model.  Just wait and see. (Like that food catering contract lah).

Of the RM6bil bailout, they say a sum of RM1.4bil is for the "privatisation of MAS". Come again? What exactly are you paying for with that RM1.4bil?

Another RM1.6bil will be used to ‘shut down’ the existing company. Come again? Why are you paying RM1.6bil to shut down a loss making company? Why does it cost RM1.6bil to shut down a company?

They say some of that money will be used for VSS to layoff some 6000 employees. Ok fine. But here is a tiny ‘by the way’ fact. Some of the RM1.6bil will be used “to pay penalties for early termination of contracts with suppliers’.

We need to know who are these suppliers and how much they are being compensated? Most importantly we want to know if the former PM’s brother’s company (that food caterer) will get any of these penalty payments. If so, how much? Don’t be shy.

I have found new friends in Parliament who I can pujuk to ask these questions when the next Parliament session begins.   Sawadeekap.

By the way, I want to register a duku here. Say there is a very senior management executive in MAS whose sister is also a major spare parts supplier for MAS aircraft engines. Doesn’t that raise conflict of interest issues?  It may even raise corruption issues.  Well thank  Allah this is just a fluke. I just made up the story.   Its not true at all.  Just like Mary Jane is not a girl or even Chinese.

But the food catering company that has an almost monopoly supply of inflight meals to MAS was  owned (now partly) by the brother of the present  Advisor to MAS (the ex PM). Doesn’t that raise conflict of interest issues? Yo super dunggu, what do you think?  And that is how we lost the entire airline. They flew it into the ground.

Now they say the CEO Ahmad Jauhari will leave by end June 2015. That is nine months away. Shouldn’t he leave now? So that you can appoint a new CEO soonest. If changing the CEO is a good thing, then why keep the 'old' CEO for another nine months? For your information, nine months is three full quarters. 
So this means there will be no new CEO for three full quarters? If Ahmad Jauhari is not going to be involved in the restructuring, then why pay him CEO salary for nine more months? And please dont say that he will be involved in the restructuring. Because if he is helping in the restructuring, then why change the CEO? But if the 'old' CEO is roped in to plan the restructuring, wont that be committing suicde again? Just thinking aloud. What do you think?

Here is a silly question – does this mean that all the super dunggus in Khazanah will still achieve all their KPIs? Which they have been achieving non stop for the past 11 years?

( will be September soon. How many TNB shares is Khazanah planning to sell this year? You know to make the books look good.  Or other “blue chip” counters that dictator Tun  Dr Mahathir gave you – all those years ago).

Why fire just the CEO? Fire the entire line up of the super dunggus at Khazanah. The music has stopped and the super dunggus have no chairs to sit on. The musical chairs game is over.

Unless they find another GLC fellow, maybe a toll highway manager, to become the CEO of MAS. Or maybe a toll collector.  Talk is Jamaludin the former Maxis guy will be roped in to become the new CEO of Newco.   If that is the case then why employ McKinsey or any other con-sultan to do a global search for a new CEO? Buang duit saja.

The consultans are getting rich from this thing again. You and you Mr and Mrs Rakyat Malaysia are being suckered again.

By the way what will they name Newco? Let me guess  Malaysian..jeng..jeng..jeng..Airlines !!

Folks, so what should be done with MAS? Simple - first change the entire management team at Khazanah. People have been saying this for ages. Khazanah has been mismanaging MAS for 11 years now.  This is the seventh bailout of MAS.  With such a poor track record, do you honestly think Khazanah will manage MAS to success over the next 11 years? I dont think so.

In the past 10 years, Khazanah has appointed FIVE CEOs for MAS. Now they are firing the CEO again. A CEO lasts an average of two years ?? What type of management is that? It is as if some people are intentionally sabotaging MAS from succeeding.

Here is some business management I learnt when I was in Standard Five : Dont appoint an Advisor whose brother is also a main supplier to the company. That is bad business. Other people who are not as kind as me will call it 'conflict of interest'.

Dont allow your stationery suppliers and napkin suppliers to dictate company policy. You know when you change your logo, change the livery of the A380 or change the address of the HQ (from Subang to KLIA) then you must spend money on new stationery, new business cards, new napkins etc. All this costs money. 

Dont hire the same con-sultans who have been giving you bad advice all these years.

Dont buy spares that you dont need (like spare Black Boxes or spare T-72 axles, thats from another story but you get the meaning).

Find out the best practises in buying fuel in the industry and try to do the same lah.

Bring back those fantastic muffins which MAS used to serve on its flights. Dont buy muffins that are made in a house belonging to family members of a company director.

Chop off those cheap fares for retired Civil Servants. And no upgrades either.  (Can or cannot?)

Expand the engineering business. Other than Boeing and Airbus, prepare now for the Chinese airplanes. Yup they are coming.

Rationalising routes is ok but my suggestion is expand, expand, expand to new and profitable routes. Tora, Tora, Tora. Be aggressive. Identify new routes with potential and start working now to enter those routes. Negotiate with foreign governments, negotiate with other airlines, use our diplomatic leverage (kalau ada). Work out clear delivery dates to enter new routes. If there is profit flying to the North Pole, just do it. Nike !! If there is no profit, then drop it.

It does not matter much if flights are below eight hours or longer than eight hours. As long as there are loads and routes are profitable, just do it. All this requires work. That is a four letter word.

This is still a viable business. MAS has a 67 year track record. Few can match the national airline.  MAS certainly deserves better management. Unfortunately Khazanah is just not the right fit.

Mat Taib : Dr M mahu PM yang bekerja, bukan melancong

The Malaysian Insider – Fri, Aug 29, 2014 

Muhd Taib mengatakan Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad akan terus mengkritik Najib Razak kerana beliau mahukan seorang perdana menteri yang bekerja dan bukannya yang selalu melancong.
Bekas naib presiden Umno itu berkata, Dr Mahathir yang menjadi perdana menteri selama 22 tahun itu merupakan seorang yang tegas dalam pentadbiran.
"Bila beliau kritik Najib, itu menunjukkan ada yang pincang dalam pentadbiran sekarang, mungkin beliau mahukan perdana menteri yang bekerja dan bukannya melancong," 

"Dr Mahathir tegas dalam segala hal membabitkan negara ini, beliau mahukan yang terbaik untuk rakyat," katanya.
Menurut Mat Taib, semasa pentabiran Dr Mahathir, tidak timbul isu perkauman, malah tidak pernah ada kumpulan pendesak kaum seperti sekarang.
"Waktu Mahathir mana ada wujud Perkasa, Isma atau apa-apa kumpulan yang menunjukkan mereka terlalu Melayu. 
"Beliau adil untuk semua kaum tapi bila Najb mengambil Putrajaya pelbagai konflik timbul ada banyak badan bukan kerajaan (NGO) pendesak dan cuba menimbulkan pelbagai pendapat-pendapat negatif," kata beliau
Muhammad yang pernah menjadi menteri bimbang sikap lemah Najib dalam menangani isu membabitkan kaum yang boleh mengundang suasana tegang. 
Minggu lalu, Dr Mahathir berkata, beliau menarik balik sokongannya kepada Najib dengan berkata segala tegurannya dalam pelbagai isu hanya sampai ke telinga yang pekak.
"Saya tidak ada pilihan melainkan menarik balik sokongan saya. Ini tidak berkesan, jadi saya kritik," katanya sambil menambah prestasi Najib lebih buruk berbanding penggantinya, Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.
"Banyak polisi, pendekatan dan tindakan kerajaan di bawah Najib memusnahkan hubungan antara kaum, ekonomi dan kewangan negara," kata Dr Mahathir.

Antara isu yang disenaraikan ialah pemansuhan Akta Keselamatan Dalam Negeri (ISA), sikap "lemah" Najib terhadap negara jiran dan penggunaan wang negara untuk mendapatkan sokongan rakyat setiap kali pilihan raya.Najib baru-baru ini bercuti selama dua minggu di Eropah. – 29 Ogos, 2014.

My views : The following points by Mat Taib (who is now a member of the opposition PAS) describe the 22 year authoritarian and cruel dictatorship of the wicked Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed :
  • semasa pentabiran Dr Mahathir, tidak timbul isu perkauman, malah tidak pernah ada kumpulan pendesak kaum seperti sekarang
  • Waktu Mahathir mana ada wujud Perkasa, Isma 
  • Beliau adil untuk semua kaum
  • beliau mahukan yang terbaik untuk rakyat
  • kerajaan di bawah Najib memusnahkan hubungan antara kaum, ekonomi dan kewangan negara
Dr Mahathir was a real dictator. Najib is not a dictator.

Sunday Lite : Cool Headgear

Bapak Setan : Help !! My Son Is Out Of Control.

Saudi king warns of terrorist threat to Europe, US
Associated Press 

While not mentioning any terrorist groups by name, King Abdullah's statement appeared aimed at drawing Washington and NATO forces into a wider fight against the Islamic State group and its supporters in the region. 

"If neglected, I am certain that after a month they will reach Europe and, after another month, America," he said

"These terrorists do not know the name of humanity and you have witnessed them severing heads and giving them to children to walk with in the street," the king said

  • Saudi Arabia openly backs rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad, but is concerned that the breakaway al-Qaida group could also turn those very same weapons on the kingdom.
  • State-backed Saudi clerics once openly called on citizens to fight in Syria 
  • While providing arms and support to Sunni militants in Syria, Saudi Arabia has denied directly funding or backing the Islamic State group.

A decade ago, al-Qaida militants launched a string of attacks in the kingdom aimed at toppling the monarchy. Saudi officials responded with a massive crackdown that saw many flee to neighboring Yemen. 

Saturday, August 30, 2014

I Told You So - Abbas Blames Hamas For Prolonging War

Palestinian leader says Hamas caused prolonged war

 Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas

RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) — Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas blamed Hamas on Friday for extending fighting with Israel in the Gaza Strip

More than 2,100 Palestinians were killed, including hundreds of civilians. 

Several Egyptian mediated cease-fire attempts during the conflict failed. 

Hamas eventually accepted almost the same truce offered at the beginning.

"It was possible for us to avoid all of that, 2,000 martyrs, 10,000 injured, 50,000 houses (destroyed)," Abbas told Palestine TV on Friday. 

He said Hamas had insisted on discussing demands first before ending the war, which only served to prolong the violence needlessly.

Egyptian mediators tried early on to get a ceasefire. 

Several temporary truces were broken by Gaza militants.
  • Egyptian formula on the table on July 15th
  • it was backed by the Arab League
  • it was rejected by Hamas then 
  • now more than a month later it has belatedly been accepted by Hamas
"As the dust clears from the conflict I'm sure many people in Gaza will be asking why did Hamas reject a month ago what it accepted today, and if it had accepted then what it accepted now, how much bloodshed could have been avoided."

(Abbas) remarks come a few days after Israel and Hamas reached truce after 50 days of fighting.

casts doubt on the future of Abbas' unity government with Hamas

Abbas, whose Palestinian Authority formed a unity government with Hamas earlier this year questioned the future of that arrangement.

The unity government was meant to put an end to the animosity between Fatah and Hamas from when Hamas overran Gaza in 2007, ousting forces from the Fatah party, led by the Western-backed secular Abbas, in bloody street battles. 

Abbas has since governed only in parts of the West Bank, and Hamas has ruled Gaza.

Abbas is eager to regain a foothold in Gaza. 

"They (Hamas) have a shadow government, if this continues it means no unity. The test is coming soon. The government needs to do its job and handle everything," Abbas said. 

He (Abbas) understands this group (Hamas) was about to topple him.

cease-fire brought an immediate end to the fighting but left key issues unresolved. 

Israel agreed to loosen a long-standing blockade 

Hamas rejected Israel's demands that it disarm.

These deeper matters are to be addressed in indirect talks in Egypt next month.
international community shunning Hamas as a terrorist group, 

Abbas would likely operate Gaza's borders 

and oversee internationally funded reconstruction efforts.

My views :  Folks, President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority is saying the same things that I have been saying. The only difference is I am here 8000 km from Gaza while Abbas is their own President. 

Either I am controlling Mahmoud Abbas' thoughts, he is influencing my thoughts or both of us can see through what is really going on with Hamas.

The Egyptians have closed the Rafah Crossing. The Egyptians have done this because Hamas is Ikhwan Muslimin, which has been toppled in Egypt.  The Rafah Crossing was used by Hamas leaders to earn hundreds of millions of US Dollars from smuggling and import monopolies, some of which was then channelled to jihadi militants in Sinai who used the money to buy weapons to kill Egyptian troops.So the Egyptians closed the Rafah Crossing.

Plus the smuggling and import monopolies also made the Hamas leaders very rich. This is the real story.  

The Egyptian action has cost the Hamas leaders hundreds of millions of US Dollars in revenue - much of which went into their own pockets.

In retaliation Hamas picked a fight with Israel which they could not win. Certainly war causes death. Over 2100 Palestinians have died. Now in late August, after 50 days of shooting tin can rockets, the Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire sponsored by Egypt since July 15th 2014.

The Hamas leaders are not even in Gaza (except Khaled Mashaal). Their leaders are "directing the war" from safe places like Doha in Qatar.

Now the Number 1 demand by Hamas is that Egypt opens the Rafah Crossing. Here is a question : why not Hamas shoot rockets into Egypt to force the Egyptians to open the Rafah Crossing?

This round of fighting was :

about the survival of the Ikhwan Muslimin
about the struggle for Hamas relevance
the struggle for political supremacy between Hamas and Abbas
about the revenue from smuggling and import monopolies. 

This fight was about money.

2100 Palestinians got killed in the process. 

And here is more news : the Rafah Crossing is still closed.

Hamas Calls On Egypt To Open Rafah Crossing

Hamas leader Mashaal says latest Gaza conflict with Israel not the last 

DOHA - Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal said on Thursday the latest war between Israel and Hamas would not be the last round of conflict between the two, but a "milestone to reaching our objective."

"This is not the end. This is just a milestone to reaching our objective. We will not restrict our dreams or make compromises to our demands," Mashaal said at a news conference in the Qatari capital, Doha.
Mashaal said that Israel's siege on Gaza had failed. "This war was forced upon us," he said at the conference which centered on the results of the seven-week operation in Gaza, but added that it was an "important station on the way to liberation."

He called on Egypt to open the Rafah border crossing with Gaza. "We call on Egypt to open the Rafah border as a brotherly action." 
The political leader said "reconstructing Gaza is the duty of the national consensus government and of the free world."

The Palestinian "resistance" groups in Gaza have succeeded in creating the equation of a balance of fear, pain and mutual insecurity" with Israel.

My views :  Why doesnt Egypt open the Rafah Border Crossing as a brotherly action?  If Egypt refuses to open the Rafah Crossing will it endanger the ceasefire beween Hamas and Israel?

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Gaza Truce Has Little Chance

There is yet one more ceasefire in Gaza. This one appears permanent. The Hamas has claimed victory. The Israeli premier Netanyahu has also claimed victory. Here are the broad terms of the Gaza ceasefire (garnered from the media) - my comments in blue.

Following are the broad parameters of the agreement, provided by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Both sides have agreed to address more complex issues - including the release of Palestinian prisoners and Gaza's demands for a sea port - via further indirect talks starting within a month 

(To me this is a potential pitfall, booby trap or poison pill. If the Israelis do not release prisoners or agree to a seaport, what can the Hamas do? Fire more rockets? I think they will. And they will fire first. Then the ceasefire will be over again - say in about two months.)


* Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza agree to halt all rocket and mortar fire into Israel -
(How can Hamas or the PA guarantee the actions of other jihadi groups in Gaza? What if some jihadi psycho shoots a rocket into Israel? Hamas will be held responsible)

* Israel will stop all military action including air strikes and ground operations.
(They can relaunch attacks the moment the ceasefire is broken).

* Israel agrees to open more of its border crossings with Gaza to allow the easier flow of goods, including humanitarian aid and reconstruction equipment, into the coastal enclave. This was also part of a ceasefire agreement after the last conflict between Israel and Hamas in November 2012, but was never fully implemented.

(This is a red herring. Here is some news. Throughout the majority of the 50 day conflict the Israelis kept open all five of the crossings from Gaza into Israel. The Erez, Nahal, Muntar, Sufa and Kerem Shalom crossings from Gaza into Israel were open. The Erez crossing was closed only after Hamas fired mortars into the crossing. Many Gazans also left Gaza through these Israeli crossngs. So the Israelis have not promised anything new. The Israelis however will carefully check all goods going into Gaza. Smuggling will be curbed. The Hamas leaders will lose huge amounts of money. They will get upset and start shooting rockets again.) 

* In a separate, bilateral agreement, Egypt will agree to open its 14 km (8 mile) border with Gaza at Rafah.

* The Palestinian Authority, headed by President Mahmoud Abbas, is expected to take over responsibility for administering Gaza's borders from Hamas. Israel and Egypt hope it will ensure weapons, ammunition and any "dual-use" goods are prevented from entering Gaza. They also expect tight monitoring of imports of construction materials like cement and cast iron to make sure they are used to rebuild or build homes rather than tunnels that have been used to attack Israel.

In my view these two points above will break the ceasefire. The Israelis know this very well. It is one thing to say that Mahmoud Abbas' PA will take over the border controls from Hamas and quite something else to put it into practise. The Hamas bosses need to control the border crossings for their smuggling operations and to collect taxes that go directly into the pockets of Hamas leaders. They are NOT going to give this up to Abbas' PA.

Also if the Hamas gives up control of the border crossings to Abbas, it means that Abbas will ultimately overshadow and replace Hamas in Gaza. This is what the Israelis and Egypt want. This is what the Hamas does not want. So the rockets will fly again.

* The Palestinian Authority will lead coordination of the reconstruction effort in Gaza with international donors, including the European Union, Qatar, Turkey and Norway.

Hamas supporters whose houses and buildings were destroyed will likely be helped last. Rockets will fly.

 * Israel is expected to narrow the security buffer - a no-go area for Palestinians that runs along the inside of the Gaza border - reducing it from 300 meters to 100 meters if the truce holds. The move will allow Palestinians more access to farm land close to the border. 

The Israelis are allowed to shoot at anyone who encroaches the 100 metre point. They are also allowed to fire warning shots at any time. The Hamas will shoot back.Another potential flashpoint.
* Israel will extend the fishing limit off Gaza's coast to six miles from three miles, with the possibility of widening it gradually if the truce holds. Ultimately, the Palestinians want to return to a full 12-mile international allowance. This was also part of the previous ceasefire deal in 2012, and was briefly implemented before being rescinded in March 2013.

(Provided the Hamas does not launch naval operations against Israel. This is what they did before, which prompted the Israelis to close the sea front.)


* Hamas wants Israel to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners rounded up in the occupied West Bank following the abduction and killing of three Jewish seminary students in June, an attack that led to the war. Hamas initially denied involvement in the killings, but a senior Hamas official in exile in Turkey last week admitted the group did carry out the attack.

The Hamas has at last acknowledged that they were responsible for the kidnap and murder of the three teenagers which sparked off the 50 day hostilities. Now the Israelis will demand that the Hamas operatives who kidnapped and murdered the three boys be brought to trial. Hamas will not agree.  The Israelis will not release any Palestinian prisoners. Hamas does not hold any more Israelis for ransom. Rockets will fly. 

 * President Abbas, who heads the Fatah party, wants freedom for long-serving Palestinian prisoners whose release was dropped after the collapse of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Same as above.

* Israel wants Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza to hand over all body parts and personal effects of Israeli soldiers killed during the war.

* Hamas wants a sea port built in Gaza, allowing goods and people to be ferried in and out of the enclave. Israel has long rejected the plan, but it is possible that progress towards it could be made if there are absolute security guarantees. In antiquity, Gaza was a major port in the eastern Mediterranean, a critical point for spice trading. There have been plans to build a new port since the Oslo peace accords in the mid-1990s, but no progress has been made.

* The Palestinians also want the airport in Gaza - Yasser Arafat International, which opened in 1998 but was shut down in 2000 after it was bombed by Israel - to be rebuilt.

Jews will eat bacon before this happens. Israel will demand a complete demilitarisation of Gaza before any seaport is built. Keeping 9-11 in mind, they will never allow an airport. What if some psycho loads a Boeing with bombs, takes off from Gaza and crashes it into Tel Aviv or London?

 * Hamas wants the un-freezing of funds to allow it to pay 40,000 police, government workers and other administrative staff who have largely been without salaries since late last year. The funds were frozen by the Palestinian Authority.

Maybe Hamas should fire rockets at Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank. This is not going to happen. Abbas will release the funds only if the PA is accepted as the authority in Gaza. This is not going to happen. The rockets will fly. 

* Israel has in recent weeks said it wants the full "demilitarization" of Gaza. The United States and European Union have supported the goal, but it remains unclear what it would mean in practice and Hamas has rejected it as unfeasible. It is possible that Israel will raise it again as talks progress.

Israel may drop this point if Mahmoud Abbas is put in charge of Gaza and not Hamas. If Hamas does not agree to a demilitarisation the truce will break. The rockets will fly.This will be a non negotiable point with Israel.

The Israelis wanted a ceasefire because the negative publicity was too much. Too many people were getting killed in Gaza. The Hamas wanted a ceasefire because too many of their people were getting killed. Plus the Israelis were targeting homes, buildings and assets owned by Hamas members. The Israelis had also neutralised all the attack tunnels which Hamas had built at considerable expense.

The "truce" is still subject to further negotiations about one month from now in Cairo. The 'Cairo Talks' could fail.  The Israelis can remain status quo as it is now. They have nothing to lose. They just do not want Hamas to fire rockets. If the Cairo Talks fail (a month from now) and the Hamas shoots rockets, the Israelis will retaliate. They may invade Gaza again in a ground offensive.

Netanyahu is being very strongly criticised in Israel for this truce. He is under tremedous pressure.  The opposition in Israel blames him for not silencing the Hamas rockets or removing Hamas from power. Both are intact in Gaza. Therefore if this truce fails, Netanyahu will be obliged to go all out to remove Hamas.

In this latest round, three parties are working together here : Israel, Egypt and Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority. All three are on the same side. Their desired outcome is the removal  of Hamas. That is what this Gaza fighting is all about.  The removal of Hamas versus the survival of Hamas. Hamas is the remnant of the Ikhwanul Muslimeen.

So the rockets will fly.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Alamak ? Dah Dua Khalifah Pula !!

The last time there were two caliphs at the same time was during the hagiographic caliphate of Muawiyah and Ali.  That caused the sunni vs shia split that has lasted for 1400 years.

Here be the news:
  • Nigeria: Boko Haram claims it is Islamic Caliphate
  • Boko Haram's declaration of a caliphate in Nigeria
  • prompted by the attention heaped on Islamic State (IS) in Iraq
  • Gwoza in Borno state under Islamic caliphate
  • Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau
  • IS (Iraq) may have inspired his statement 
  • "..Shekau's moves are coming from a desire to emulate IS" 
  • Shekau's recent moves appear to have been shaped by IS 
  • "What is happening in Iraq has given them direction," 
  • Previously, the militants thought they should "overrun the whole country before they declare their (jihadist) republic" but after watching IS they have taken a more gradualist approach
  • Boko Haram's tactics have seen a dramatic shift in recent months from hit-and-run strikes to attacking and holding areas in the remote northeast.
  • Boko Haram, blamed for more than 10,000 deaths since 2009
  • northern Nigeria has network of emirs whom Shekau has denounced
  • Experts said the use of force to establish so-called religious purity clearly has relevance to Boko Haram, whose targets have included schools teaching a "Western" curriculum and Christian churches.
  • Shekau trying to raise his own profile rather than
  • submit to like-minded extremists in Middle East.
  • reject notion Shekau trying to position Boko Haram within caliphate declared by IS
  • notion of Nigerdian jihadists submitting to authority of Arabs is highly unlikely
  • Shekau may have been saying: "If (IS) can be a caliphate, then so can we.
There is that insane caliph in Iraq and Syria. His name is Abu Bakar al Baghdadi. However Baghdadi is not alone anymore.  There is one more caliph now. The latest caliph to declare himself so is that Boko Haram psycho in Nigeria - Abu Bakar Shekau.

 The Caliphate of the Bodoh Harami

"notion of Nigerdian jihadists submitting to authority of Arabs is highly unlikely".

There is already going to be a fight between these two caliphs.  The Boko Harami caliph in Nigeria is not going to submit to the arab caliph in Iraq. The Nigerians say they are not going to cium bontot pak arab.

I think this creates another huge dilemma. Which caliph should the Malaysian jihadis recognise?  Pak arab Abu Bakar Baghdadi al Syaitan or the Nigerian Abu Bakar Shekau al Iblees? Pilih lah. 

  • Women from Britain, Australia & M'sia travelled to Iraq to serve as 'comfort women'
  • a phenomenon become known as sexual jihad.
  • Intelligence in KL confirmed least three M'sian females travelled to Islamic State
  • One of the women is said to be in her 30s while another is in her 40s.
  • women are said to have offered sexual comforts to fighters to boost their morale.
  • These [Malaysian] women offered themselves in sexual comfort roles  
  • certain Muslim women showing sympathy for the Isis struggle
  • Australian and British females are also performing sexual jihad for the militants.
  • includes British Muslim women performing sexual jihad
  • Sunni extremists had called women in Mosul to perform sexual jihad
Oh well. The kafirs call it prostitution. But what do the kafirs know? I mean that is why they are kafirs right? When kafir women did the same thing in Saigon during the Vietnam War, they were called prostitutes. That was definitely not jihad (the Saigon version).

When the Muslim women do it in Iraq, they call it sexual jihad or jihad al munakaha.

What does our Fatwa Council say? Can the National Fatwa Council make a fatwa on this matter? 

Back to the question :  who shall be the rightfu caliph? Abu Bakar Baghdadi in Iraq or Abu Bakar Shekau in Nigeria?

Kalau nak jihad al munakaha, siapa lagi handsome?   Pilih lah.