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Thursday, August 28, 2014

Gaza Truce Has Little Chance

There is yet one more ceasefire in Gaza. This one appears permanent. The Hamas has claimed victory. The Israeli premier Netanyahu has also claimed victory. Here are the broad terms of the Gaza ceasefire (garnered from the media) - my comments in blue.

Following are the broad parameters of the agreement, provided by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Both sides have agreed to address more complex issues - including the release of Palestinian prisoners and Gaza's demands for a sea port - via further indirect talks starting within a month 

(To me this is a potential pitfall, booby trap or poison pill. If the Israelis do not release prisoners or agree to a seaport, what can the Hamas do? Fire more rockets? I think they will. And they will fire first. Then the ceasefire will be over again - say in about two months.)


* Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza agree to halt all rocket and mortar fire into Israel -
(How can Hamas or the PA guarantee the actions of other jihadi groups in Gaza? What if some jihadi psycho shoots a rocket into Israel? Hamas will be held responsible)

* Israel will stop all military action including air strikes and ground operations.
(They can relaunch attacks the moment the ceasefire is broken).

* Israel agrees to open more of its border crossings with Gaza to allow the easier flow of goods, including humanitarian aid and reconstruction equipment, into the coastal enclave. This was also part of a ceasefire agreement after the last conflict between Israel and Hamas in November 2012, but was never fully implemented.

(This is a red herring. Here is some news. Throughout the majority of the 50 day conflict the Israelis kept open all five of the crossings from Gaza into Israel. The Erez, Nahal, Muntar, Sufa and Kerem Shalom crossings from Gaza into Israel were open. The Erez crossing was closed only after Hamas fired mortars into the crossing. Many Gazans also left Gaza through these Israeli crossngs. So the Israelis have not promised anything new. The Israelis however will carefully check all goods going into Gaza. Smuggling will be curbed. The Hamas leaders will lose huge amounts of money. They will get upset and start shooting rockets again.) 

* In a separate, bilateral agreement, Egypt will agree to open its 14 km (8 mile) border with Gaza at Rafah.

* The Palestinian Authority, headed by President Mahmoud Abbas, is expected to take over responsibility for administering Gaza's borders from Hamas. Israel and Egypt hope it will ensure weapons, ammunition and any "dual-use" goods are prevented from entering Gaza. They also expect tight monitoring of imports of construction materials like cement and cast iron to make sure they are used to rebuild or build homes rather than tunnels that have been used to attack Israel.

In my view these two points above will break the ceasefire. The Israelis know this very well. It is one thing to say that Mahmoud Abbas' PA will take over the border controls from Hamas and quite something else to put it into practise. The Hamas bosses need to control the border crossings for their smuggling operations and to collect taxes that go directly into the pockets of Hamas leaders. They are NOT going to give this up to Abbas' PA.

Also if the Hamas gives up control of the border crossings to Abbas, it means that Abbas will ultimately overshadow and replace Hamas in Gaza. This is what the Israelis and Egypt want. This is what the Hamas does not want. So the rockets will fly again.

* The Palestinian Authority will lead coordination of the reconstruction effort in Gaza with international donors, including the European Union, Qatar, Turkey and Norway.

Hamas supporters whose houses and buildings were destroyed will likely be helped last. Rockets will fly.

 * Israel is expected to narrow the security buffer - a no-go area for Palestinians that runs along the inside of the Gaza border - reducing it from 300 meters to 100 meters if the truce holds. The move will allow Palestinians more access to farm land close to the border. 

The Israelis are allowed to shoot at anyone who encroaches the 100 metre point. They are also allowed to fire warning shots at any time. The Hamas will shoot back.Another potential flashpoint.
* Israel will extend the fishing limit off Gaza's coast to six miles from three miles, with the possibility of widening it gradually if the truce holds. Ultimately, the Palestinians want to return to a full 12-mile international allowance. This was also part of the previous ceasefire deal in 2012, and was briefly implemented before being rescinded in March 2013.

(Provided the Hamas does not launch naval operations against Israel. This is what they did before, which prompted the Israelis to close the sea front.)


* Hamas wants Israel to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners rounded up in the occupied West Bank following the abduction and killing of three Jewish seminary students in June, an attack that led to the war. Hamas initially denied involvement in the killings, but a senior Hamas official in exile in Turkey last week admitted the group did carry out the attack.

The Hamas has at last acknowledged that they were responsible for the kidnap and murder of the three teenagers which sparked off the 50 day hostilities. Now the Israelis will demand that the Hamas operatives who kidnapped and murdered the three boys be brought to trial. Hamas will not agree.  The Israelis will not release any Palestinian prisoners. Hamas does not hold any more Israelis for ransom. Rockets will fly. 

 * President Abbas, who heads the Fatah party, wants freedom for long-serving Palestinian prisoners whose release was dropped after the collapse of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Same as above.

* Israel wants Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza to hand over all body parts and personal effects of Israeli soldiers killed during the war.

* Hamas wants a sea port built in Gaza, allowing goods and people to be ferried in and out of the enclave. Israel has long rejected the plan, but it is possible that progress towards it could be made if there are absolute security guarantees. In antiquity, Gaza was a major port in the eastern Mediterranean, a critical point for spice trading. There have been plans to build a new port since the Oslo peace accords in the mid-1990s, but no progress has been made.

* The Palestinians also want the airport in Gaza - Yasser Arafat International, which opened in 1998 but was shut down in 2000 after it was bombed by Israel - to be rebuilt.

Jews will eat bacon before this happens. Israel will demand a complete demilitarisation of Gaza before any seaport is built. Keeping 9-11 in mind, they will never allow an airport. What if some psycho loads a Boeing with bombs, takes off from Gaza and crashes it into Tel Aviv or London?

 * Hamas wants the un-freezing of funds to allow it to pay 40,000 police, government workers and other administrative staff who have largely been without salaries since late last year. The funds were frozen by the Palestinian Authority.

Maybe Hamas should fire rockets at Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank. This is not going to happen. Abbas will release the funds only if the PA is accepted as the authority in Gaza. This is not going to happen. The rockets will fly. 

* Israel has in recent weeks said it wants the full "demilitarization" of Gaza. The United States and European Union have supported the goal, but it remains unclear what it would mean in practice and Hamas has rejected it as unfeasible. It is possible that Israel will raise it again as talks progress.

Israel may drop this point if Mahmoud Abbas is put in charge of Gaza and not Hamas. If Hamas does not agree to a demilitarisation the truce will break. The rockets will fly.This will be a non negotiable point with Israel.

The Israelis wanted a ceasefire because the negative publicity was too much. Too many people were getting killed in Gaza. The Hamas wanted a ceasefire because too many of their people were getting killed. Plus the Israelis were targeting homes, buildings and assets owned by Hamas members. The Israelis had also neutralised all the attack tunnels which Hamas had built at considerable expense.

The "truce" is still subject to further negotiations about one month from now in Cairo. The 'Cairo Talks' could fail.  The Israelis can remain status quo as it is now. They have nothing to lose. They just do not want Hamas to fire rockets. If the Cairo Talks fail (a month from now) and the Hamas shoots rockets, the Israelis will retaliate. They may invade Gaza again in a ground offensive.

Netanyahu is being very strongly criticised in Israel for this truce. He is under tremedous pressure.  The opposition in Israel blames him for not silencing the Hamas rockets or removing Hamas from power. Both are intact in Gaza. Therefore if this truce fails, Netanyahu will be obliged to go all out to remove Hamas.

In this latest round, three parties are working together here : Israel, Egypt and Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority. All three are on the same side. Their desired outcome is the removal  of Hamas. That is what this Gaza fighting is all about.  The removal of Hamas versus the survival of Hamas. Hamas is the remnant of the Ikhwanul Muslimeen.

So the rockets will fly.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Alamak ? Dah Dua Khalifah Pula !!

The last time there were two caliphs at the same time was during the hagiographic caliphate of Muawiyah and Ali.  That caused the sunni vs shia split that has lasted for 1400 years.

Here be the news:
  • Nigeria: Boko Haram claims it is Islamic Caliphate
  • Boko Haram's declaration of a caliphate in Nigeria
  • prompted by the attention heaped on Islamic State (IS) in Iraq
  • Gwoza in Borno state under Islamic caliphate
  • Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau
  • IS (Iraq) may have inspired his statement 
  • "..Shekau's moves are coming from a desire to emulate IS" 
  • Shekau's recent moves appear to have been shaped by IS 
  • "What is happening in Iraq has given them direction," 
  • Previously, the militants thought they should "overrun the whole country before they declare their (jihadist) republic" but after watching IS they have taken a more gradualist approach
  • Boko Haram's tactics have seen a dramatic shift in recent months from hit-and-run strikes to attacking and holding areas in the remote northeast.
  • Boko Haram, blamed for more than 10,000 deaths since 2009
  • northern Nigeria has network of emirs whom Shekau has denounced
  • Experts said the use of force to establish so-called religious purity clearly has relevance to Boko Haram, whose targets have included schools teaching a "Western" curriculum and Christian churches.
  • Shekau trying to raise his own profile rather than
  • submit to like-minded extremists in Middle East.
  • reject notion Shekau trying to position Boko Haram within caliphate declared by IS
  • notion of Nigerdian jihadists submitting to authority of Arabs is highly unlikely
  • Shekau may have been saying: "If (IS) can be a caliphate, then so can we.
There is that insane caliph in Iraq and Syria. His name is Abu Bakar al Baghdadi. However Baghdadi is not alone anymore.  There is one more caliph now. The latest caliph to declare himself so is that Boko Haram psycho in Nigeria - Abu Bakar Shekau.

 The Caliphate of the Bodoh Harami

"notion of Nigerdian jihadists submitting to authority of Arabs is highly unlikely".

There is already going to be a fight between these two caliphs.  The Boko Harami caliph in Nigeria is not going to submit to the arab caliph in Iraq. The Nigerians say they are not going to cium bontot pak arab.

I think this creates another huge dilemma. Which caliph should the Malaysian jihadis recognise?  Pak arab Abu Bakar Baghdadi al Syaitan or the Nigerian Abu Bakar Shekau al Iblees? Pilih lah. 

  • Women from Britain, Australia & M'sia travelled to Iraq to serve as 'comfort women'
  • a phenomenon become known as sexual jihad.
  • Intelligence in KL confirmed least three M'sian females travelled to Islamic State
  • One of the women is said to be in her 30s while another is in her 40s.
  • women are said to have offered sexual comforts to fighters to boost their morale.
  • These [Malaysian] women offered themselves in sexual comfort roles  
  • certain Muslim women showing sympathy for the Isis struggle
  • Australian and British females are also performing sexual jihad for the militants.
  • includes British Muslim women performing sexual jihad
  • Sunni extremists had called women in Mosul to perform sexual jihad
Oh well. The kafirs call it prostitution. But what do the kafirs know? I mean that is why they are kafirs right? When kafir women did the same thing in Saigon during the Vietnam War, they were called prostitutes. That was definitely not jihad (the Saigon version).

When the Muslim women do it in Iraq, they call it sexual jihad or jihad al munakaha.

What does our Fatwa Council say? Can the National Fatwa Council make a fatwa on this matter? 

Back to the question :  who shall be the rightfu caliph? Abu Bakar Baghdadi in Iraq or Abu Bakar Shekau in Nigeria?

Kalau nak jihad al munakaha, siapa lagi handsome?   Pilih lah.